Despite economic and geopolitical headwinds, the global beverage alcohol industry is forecast to grow in value by US$34bn (AU$52bn) over the next decade, according to new data and long-term projections from market research firm IWSR.
The recently-released figures anticipate three per cent absolute value growth between 2024 and 2034 across the world’s largest beverage alcohol markets. From 2024 to 2029 alone, total global market value across 160 tracked markets is expected to rise by US$16bn, or one per cent.
This positive outlook comes after a turbulent 2024, during which global total beverage alcohol (TBA) volumes declined by one per cent. Still, overall market value grew by one per cent, equating to a US$8.5bn gain, thanks to consumers’ continued shift toward premium products.
While developed markets such as the US and China saw contraction last year, emerging markets, including India and Brazil, delivered solid growth. IWSR analysts suggest these regions will become increasingly critical to the industry’s future expansion.
“The main challenge for brand owners over the next few years will be balancing the resource demands of the developing markets, which offer the best chance of top-line growth, with the need to manage the much larger but declining markets which have been the drivers of growth for the past 20 years,” said Emily Neill, IWSR COO, Research & Operations.
“At the same time, they will need to focus on finding growth opportunities across categories and price tiers, in both developing and developed markets. One example here is premium beer in the UK, where innovation and targeted marketing created significant growth in 2024, despite it being a very mature market where the overall category is in structural decline.”
Looking ahead to 2034, IWSR’s new 10-year forecasting model predicts that TBA volumes across the top 31 global markets will remain broadly stable. Wine is the only category forecast to decline over the decade, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of minus one per cent. In contrast, ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages are expected to grow at a CAGR of two per cent, while beer, cider, and spirits will see flat volume performance.
Despite limited volume growth, value is set to outpace volume in most categories as consumer behavior continues to shift toward ‘less but better’ consumption. This trend will help sustain premiumisation, even in flat or declining markets.
Beer remains a major driver of volume growth in markets such as Mexico, India, and Vietnam. And while overall beer consumption is falling in markets like the US, China, Germany, and Japan, growth opportunities remain in niche segments – particularly non-alcoholic, stout, and specialty beers. Premium and super-premium offerings are expected to be the best performers.
In spirits, Tequila is forecast to grow steadily across nearly all key markets outside its native Mexico, with projected CAGRs of two per cent in volume and three per cent in value through 2034. Scotch whisky is poised for significant gains in India, which is expected to become its largest market by 2027. Turkey is also emerging as a growth hub, with Scotch forecast to grow there at a CAGR of four per cent, making it the category’s fourth-largest market by 2030.
Meanwhile, spirit-based aperitifs are projected to grow by four per cent annually across the top 31 markets through 2034, buoyed by rising demand in Brazil, Poland, and the US.
These latest projections reinforce the industry’s resilience and highlight the importance of premiumisation, market diversification, and innovation in responding to shifting global demand.
The release of comprehensive new data and forecasts coincides with the launch of IWSR’s new 10-year forecasting tool, which covers the leading beverage alcohol markets, which account for 80 per cent of global volumes.