After persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions and varying levels of consumer confidence characterised 2024, global market analysts IWSR says that while the next 12 months will be marked by continued economic uncertainty there will be several growth opportunities.
Emily Neill, IWSR’s Chief Operating Officer Research and Operations said: “The drinks industry faces a subdued but opportunity-rich environment in 2025.”
“Channel shifts offer a note of optimism, with the on-premise showing nascent growth in some key markets, and digital platforms wielding a growing influence on both online and offline purchasing decisions.
“As these key trends shape the beverage alcohol landscape in 2025, they start to frame some key growth segments and markets for the industry. Navigating these will require growth opportunities to be assessed on a market, category and price-tier basis, with a more nuanced approach than was previously needed,” she said.
According to the latest research from IWSR, the global authority on beverage alcohol data and intelligence, there are five key trends shaping the growth of beverage alcohol in 2025.
1. New moderation strategies
Susie Goldspink, Senior Insights Manager – RTDs and No/Low Alcohol, says drinkers are more in control of their alcohol consumption.
“This trend spans all age groups, regions and demographics, highlighting moderation as a mainstream cultural phenomenon, rather than a trend limited to younger LDA+ (legal drinking age) consumers,” she said.
Common moderation strategies include lighter consumption, temporary abstinence and single category occasions (limiting to a single type of beverage on any given occasion).
No/Low-Alcohol volumes are also forecast to expand at a CAGR of four per cent between 2024 and 2028, with no-alcohol spearheading this with a seven per cent volume CAGR. The no-alcohol category alone is expected to deliver incremental growth of more than US$4bn by 2028.
2. Growth axis shift intensifies
Beverage alcohol markets in developing countries rather than mature destinations, are set to see major growth in value terms over the next five years.
Gains will be largely driven by high-population countries such as India, China and the United States – followed by Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Vietnam and Nigeria.
However, Neill said: “Gains from mature markets will prove more elusive – the US being a notable exception – with many seeing marginal growth or even contracting.”
IWSR says strong momentum displayed by developing markets is being driven by younger populations, rising disposable incomes and expanding middle classes.
3. The rise of casual consumption
“The shift from formal, high-profile drinking occasions to more casual and spontaneous settings is transforming the beverage alcohol landscape – especially for categories such as rosé wine, Prosecco, bitters and spirit aperitifs,” said Richard Halstead, IWSR’s Chief Operating Officer Consumer Insights and Custom Analytics.
“Changing social norms, economic constraints and a preference for relaxed, versatile beverages are driving this shift.”
RTDs are expected to continue to thrive because of the casual consumption trend and are expected to grow especially in the more established RTD markets of Japan, the US, Australia and Canada.
All of the top 10 RTD markets are forecast to register CAGR volume gains between now and 2028, led by Brazil (six per cent), Australia (four per cent), Germany (four per cent), the US (three per cent) and Canada (three per cent).
4. Premiumisation slowing, but beer stands out
The price competitiveness of premium beer and cider is proving to be a success in the current macroeconomic landscape as a result of affordability trends, with volumes rising by two per cent in the first half of 2024 compared to a decline of three per cent for premium spirits and wine.
All key markets report downtrading in both volume and value among lower-income consumers, while higher-income drinkers are more likely to reduce volume without trading down in value.
Spirits with an average retail sales price of US$100 plus are continuing to expand their share of overall global spirits value, reaching five per cent of the total market. The consumers of these luxury products tend to be more financially insulated, fuelling continued, although slower, growth.
5. Channel shifts impacting purchasing decisions
IWSR consumer data covering the second half of 2024 reveals a year-on-year rise in on-trade consumption on the most recent drinking occasion, as consumers continue to
drink more when they go out, despite evidence of moderation in both the on- and off-trade.
“After years of disruption, the on-trade channel is showing signs of revival in key countries such as China, Germany, Italy, Mexico, the UK and the US, driving a long-awaited note of optimism for the global beverage alcohol market,” Halstead said.
Digital platforms are now playing a pivotal role in driving offline sales. According to IWSR research, 63 per cent of online alcohol buyers conduct extensive research before making a purchase – a trend increasingly echoed by offline shoppers.
Price comparison and product discovery rank as the top research drivers, as consumers allow digital sources such as brand websites, product reviews and even delivery apps to influence their choices across all channels.